2 or 3 comebets??

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Bonedance, Apr 11, 2012.

  1. zmoney, Apr 22, 2012

    zmoney

    zmoney Member

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    Oh and yeah I'm sure those seals were libs.
     
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  2. kaysirtap, Apr 22, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Right away? Once again... Come bets can win on one roll also. If you think that single Put or Place bets are resolved faster than Come bets, or that single Put or Place bets are resolved for winners faster than a Come bets, you are wrong. Just look at the number of permutations that will resolve the bets on any given roll.

    If you argue that Place or Put bets can win on one roll (the first roll), I will argue that Come bets can win on one roll also. Not only that, Come bets have a better chance of winning on that one roll. Come bets have 12 ways it can be resolved on that roll, and 8 of them are winners. The best you can do on a Place/Put bet is on the 6 or 8, which has 11 ways it can be resolved - 5 of them for winners.

    Now... if you only Put/Place the 6 or 8, I will concede that if neither the Put/Place nor the Come bet was resolved on the first roll, then the Put/Place will be resolved more often than Come bets on average. But that's true only if you are Put/Placing the 6 or 8, and only if neither bet was resolved on the first roll. This is because Come bets will sometimes end up on the 4, 5, 9, or 10... at which point they have fewer ways to be resolved than a Put/Place on the 6 or 8. However, even if you only Put/Place the 6 or 8, you will not be able to overcome the advantage a Come bet has on the first roll.

    Otherwise, looking at the bets as a whole, the only way Put/Place bets can be resolved faster than Come bets is if you have more than one Put/Place. So yes, if you are extremely short on time, then multiple Put/Place bets will give you more permutations to win something. But remember that just because you are winning "something" more often, does not mean that it's a good bet. You also have to look at what they're paying you and compare that to the risk you are taking to win that "something".

    Actually, the 6 & 8 are the best Put/Place/Come bets. That's why I focus on them... to show that even the best Put/Place bets are not better than Come bets. To say that the 6/8 are not good bets because they pay close to even money is like saying the 2 and 12 are the best bets on the table. Again... it's about what they pay you in relation to the risk you are taking.

    This is not my argument at all. The fact that a Come bet may or may not hedge against an already established Come or Pass Line bet is of no importance, is merely coincidental, and makes no difference.

    I can understand if you don't personally like Come bets. But if you want to talk strictly about which bets are mathematically better... this argument is only valid if you assume that numbers are thrown once, then a seven-out. It again assumes that the Come bet did not win via the "one-roll scenario". What about all of the times I make a Come bet, and I win it with a seven, and you lose all of your bets? Only giving a specific situation in which one bet is better than another is a weak argument.
     
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  3. kaysirtap, Apr 22, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    I am not assuming that there is a decision on the first roll. I am only saying that it's a possibility, and you can't ignore that possibility.
    There is no roll where a Put bet can win and a Come bet can't. Can you see that? Obviously you can't. Tell me which roll that is.


    Stop assuming and just look at all of the possible different events occurring. On the first roll after we make the bets, it's the Come. On the first roll after we make the bets, the Come bet has eight ways to win, and a Put bet has five ways at best.


    Yeah, you're right... you know what makes it true? Math.
    Wow... I can't believe the dice know that the come-out roll is Roll 1, and that's when it should start counting to make sure the seven comes out 1/6 times on average. Dice are so smart these days.

    So... are you making these bets after the come-out roll (Roll 2), or after the first roll after the come-out roll (Roll 3)? If you make the bets before Roll 2, those bets can be decided beginning on Roll 2, not Roll 3. I'm sure you just got confused. We'll stick with the way you wrote it.

    Yes, I understand that in certain situations, a Put/Place bet will be better than Come bets. But you cannot know if you are in that kind of situation until after the fact. By the way... the Come bet has a chance to win on Roll 3... by ignoring this fact, you make it obvious that your argument is based on specific situations only (when Come bets aren't resolved immediately). You're comparing Put bets made this roll to Put bets made the next roll.

    You know what SC, I hope you do try Put bets. I hope you try them for a long, long time.
     
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  4. zmoney, Apr 22, 2012

    zmoney

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    It's not that I don't like them I just have a more aggressive play style than u do and like winning more money quicker instead of being more conservative. That's why I like buy bets because yes it's true that you'll win on a 7 if it hits but that's even money. In the long run if you buy the 5/9 instead of having two come bets you win more at the end of the day (my opinion based on my experience ).

    I stand by the 6/8 for the come stinks cause you could have placed them for $30 each so in your scenario the 8 hits you win $35 on a place bet progress that up one unit to $42. It hits again you win $49 whereas you win $35 on the come so I'm ahead $49.
     
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  5. kaysirtap, Apr 22, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    Holy moly... buying the 5/9? Should we start a new thread for this? zmoney... where you play, do they charge commission for Buy bets on a win only? Or do they charge you when you make the bet?

    You can stand wherever you want... but just realize that this scenario also ignores the advantage the Come bet has on the first roll.
     
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  6. Southern-Comfort, Apr 22, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    Thank you. This is all this was about. Now if you could just come off your high horse long enough to apologize to BlackChip for your unwarranted belittling.. all will be well in the universe again.
    And yes, I do plan to try Put betting. God knows Come betting has been a bad experience for me, although I can say honestly that most people seem to do well with it. Put betting may be a good thing.
     
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  7. zmoney, Apr 22, 2012

    zmoney

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    Wins only. I live in southern California so just NV casinos and some casinos in Washington and new Mexico
     
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  8. kaysirtap, Apr 22, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    Thank you for what? For teaching you that Come bets are better than Put bets? You're welcome. Were you trying to make some other point there with those quotes and that post? A Put bet is considerably worse than a Come bet. TRUE. Put/Place bets will have more chances of winning than Come bets if the Come bet isn't resolved on the first roll. TRUE. You can never know that the Come bet won't be resolved on the first roll. TRUE.

    I am not apologizing to BlackChip. BlackChip gave bad advice in saying that one should try Put bets instead of Come bets because:
    I will not let other people be mislead by misinformation here just because it may hurt someone's feelings.

    Fine... no new thread then :p You go to casinos in WA all the way from So. Cal?
     
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  9. Southern-Comfort, Apr 22, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    And here you go again. You just admitted that Put bets arfe not terrible bets and now you say they are again rather than apologioze. I'll write you off as a lost cause. You may write me off as one as well.
     
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  10. kaysirtap, Apr 22, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

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    Umm... no. Put bets are terrible bets. I never said they weren't. Put bets are not terrible bets if you can accurately predict the future. Do you want me to apologize for not asking if BlackChip was psychic?

    What you quoted was me saying that Put bets can be better given a certain set of circumstances. Specifically that the Come bet either will not be resolved, or has a lower probability of winning on the first roll (written by me in the quoted post as "after the fact"). But you would need to know these things in advance, and unless you believe in DI or you are psychic, you can never know that. Now, if you can accurately predict the future... Put bet away. But if you're really able to predict the future, I'd go with Hop bets instead.
     
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  11. zmoney, Apr 22, 2012

    zmoney

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    My wife's family lives up there so rarely Washington same goes for NM. But I go to either LV, Laughlin or even Prim monthly/bi-monthly. Pretty much love craps and wish Ca would legalize dice so I could enjoy more profit instead of spending money on gas and food etc...
     
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  12. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 25, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Come bettors are not betting that a number will roll twice; they are betting that a number will roll again. Those two bets are not identical. Similarly, Place/Put bettors are not betting that a number will roll once; they are betting that a particular number will roll once. Again, not the same bet. Contrasting Come bets to Place/Put bets on the basis of how many times a number must roll to win is therefore meaningless because both bets need a number to roll only once. The Place/Put bettor picks that number him/herself; the Come bettor lets the dice pick the number.
     
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  13. Southern-Comfort, Apr 25, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/again
    Actually, after my initial thought that you weren't making any better sense than KST, I thought about it and I believe what you were saying is that the come bet is actually two bet in tandem with each other. The first bet being a one-roll bet trying to hi a seven (or eleven). After that it becomes a multi-rol even-odds bet (which you can lay odds on for a better return) on whichever number had hit.
    If thats what you're saying, its simply a passline bet with one less roll until the dreaded seven-out.
    The first bet has tremendous odds against it, 6 to 1 I believe... even payout isn't worth those odds. As for the second bet... adding odds helps, but you've still shaved a roll off the average, and into the casino's favor haven't you?
    We all know that end-of-day all the rolls will basically average out, and all the rooll sessions will be about a seven out after 6 rolls. Maybe seven, lets agree that its not one. I have already posted an example of what an average roll, based on that criteria would end up being, compaing Put and Come. Show me, based on average, how a come turns out better than the same bet on a Put please?
     
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  14. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 25, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    And your point is? The first definition of "again" given at the site cited is, "1. Once more; anew". Those who claim a Come bet is inferior to a Place/Put bet because a number must roll twice instead of only once imply that the Come bet is being made on a particular number just as the Place/Put bet is. Were that the case then of course Come bets would have less chance to win, but that is not the case. At the time the Come bet supposedly needs a number to roll twice it has already rolled once and therefore only needs to roll once for the bet to win. Now, if the goal is to win more faster when things go as hoped (i.e. box numbers are being thrown a lot) then Place/Put betting will outperform Come betting because Place/Put bets will win when Come bets are merely moving to their point, but alternate scenarios (when things do not go as hoped) can also be composed to show the opposite.
     
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  15. kaysirtap, Apr 25, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    You can't be serious. You mean to tell us that all you needed explained to you was that a Come bet was a traveling Pass Line bet? And then you would have understood everything? That is really basic craps knowledge. SC, I thought you knew more about the game. Furthermore, I am confused as to how one can objectively compare two bets without really understanding how both of those bets function.

    To say that the Come bet has "one [fewer] roll until the dreaded seven-out" implies that the Come is somehow not as good as the Pass Line because it doesn't last as long. I'm not sure if you were trying to imply this. Of course, this is not true, as Pass Line bets and Come bets are equally as good (mathematically). While you can think of the (established) Come bet as being shorter when both bets lose, it can also be longer if the PL point is made and the Come number isn't. However, the number of throws a PL or Come bet is "up" is irrelevant since all that matters is the throw(s) on which these bets are decided. After all, if a "point" is determined for a Come bet (didn't win or lose on the first roll), and it hits the very next throw... who cares how long the bet was up?
     
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  16. kaysirtap, Apr 25, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    I just edited this post. Originally, I was going to walk you through it step by step... but now I think I'll just leave you in the dark and let you think that Put bets are better than Come bets. I'm starting to wonder if falcon hacked into your account.
     
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  17. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 26, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    On its comeout roll a Come bet has 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose, a net advantage of 4 wins; a Put bet has 3, 4, or 5 ways to win depending on the point and 6 ways to lose, a net disadvantage of 3, 2, or 1 losses. Once a point is established the two bets are at the same disadvantage with 3, 4, or 5 ways to win depending on the point and 6 ways to lose. Overall, then, Come bets are expected to outperform Put bets because of their first roll advantage.

    Just in case you actually meant Place instead of Put see http://www.crapsforum.com/viewreply/14406/.
     
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  18. Southern-Comfort, Apr 26, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    One the comeout roll the bet has 8 ways to win, therefore 28 ways to not win, for even odds on a single roll. Thats a good bet? I guess the not losing it all changes everything. Anyway, I asked about what happens on a average roll... as in take all the rolls in the day, and averahe them out... as in a roll starts after someone just sevened out. average woukld be no seven. Yes it happens,... so do 2 and 12 on tghe comeout, but we are assuming none of those on a single roll as wekll, ok? So, show me, on a roll which starts with establishing a point, and goes the average length of a roll, how it all works out.
    That being said... I stated early on that I've never tried a Put bet and I am speaking from innocence (ignorance?) about it. I've looked and am left with an question which may be central. As I came into this, I was understanding that you can place a Put bet on any number at any time. As I've looked around I get the impression that my understanding may be incorrect, but I've been unable to find a reference which is definitive about how they are placed. Maybe you can help me. Now, as I understood it, after the comeout is established (say a 4), I could then place the 6 and/or 8 at will. But looking, it seems more like , if I want to place a Put on the 6 (after another number is made) I can only do that when a 6 is rolled... which if its the case, I can understand that it, like the come bet, requires youir number to have been rolled twice to complete.
    Which is the correct version of the Put bet?
     
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  19. basicstrategy777, Apr 26, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    Depending on the casino, you can make a put bet on any point number at any time.

    It will pay better than a place bet or buy bet if you take more than 6 times odds.

    You miss the possibility of a win on 7 or 11 by not going thru the come box.

    It is inferior to the come bet when you consider, of the 2 bets ( come and put ) which will make you the most money.

    777
     
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  20. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 26, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    It is a better bet than one which also pays only even money and has, at most, only 5 ways to win.
    How about also having fewer ways to lose, 4 ways vs. 6 ways?
    Not OK. The comeout roll is what differentiates a Come bet from a Put bet, and it is on that roll that the Come bet has the better chance of winning. After the comeout roll the two bets are identical, assuming the Put bet is made on the Come bet's point.
    What's to show? Once the Come bet establishes a point that number must roll again before a 7 for the bet to win. Once a Put bet is made on a number that number must roll before a 7 for the bet to win.
    That is correct.
    A Put bet can be thought of in either or both of two ways.
    1. A Put bet is identical to a Come bet that has established a point. It pays even money when its number rolls and loses when a 7 rolls. You can take odds on a Put bet just as you can on an established Come bet, and as Basic Sevens noted, if enough odds are taken the Put bet will pay better than a Place bet on the same number.
    2. A Put bet is identical to a Place bet except ...
    A) it is a contract bet and cannot be turned off or taken down, and
    B) it pays only even money (although any odds taken are paid at true odds).
     
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