# 12=30:1 Anybody ever try this strategy??

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.

1. Onautopilot, Mar 26, 2015

### Onautopilot Member

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I like a different strategy on the "12" bet. Take \$900 to the table and bet a dollar on the 12 every roll, and if it hits, parlay it....900 chances for \$900! And actually, you have a fair chance of hitting it before the \$900 is spent.

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2. KokomoJoe4, Mar 26, 2015

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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a fair chance of hitting it 30 or so times yes, but not so sure about twice in a row : - (

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3. Onautopilot, Mar 26, 2015

### Onautopilot Member

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Yep, actually it's somewhat less than a 50 / 50 proposition of hitting a parlay in that many tries. I think the odds are about 1 in 1296 of hitting the parlay. But I still like it a lot better than a Martingale on the 12. I would probably never really do the \$900 thing at one session, but over my lifetime, I am sure I have tried it more times than that....a few dollars at a time. I can vividly remember the few wins I had doing it, and the \$1 spent trying, never comes to mind.

#123
4. MustangSally, Mar 26, 2015

### MustangSally Member

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yes, this is a simple calculation btw

the probability of NOT getting 2 in a row over 900 attempts =
0.508804061
(I used Excel)

1 in 1296 = the number of attempts (36 * 36 = 1296)
each attempt = 1.027777778 rolls (1 + 1/36)
so the average number of rolls to see a run of 2 = 1,332

but the fun would be to do this all 900 tries and keep the winnings in a piggy bank
one could hit this two times in 900 attempts or even more

Code:
```Event...    Run Probability...    1 in
at least 1 run of length 2 or more    0.491195939148079    2.04
at least 2 runs of length 2 or more    0.146754646697653    6.81
at least 3 runs of length 2 or more    0.030815849211662    32.45
at least 4 runs of length 2 or more    0.004944458909911    202.25
at least 5 runs of length 2 or more    0.000638892413747    1,565.21
```
I think I try this on me next visit to Las Vegas
sounds fun!
hugs and kisses
Sally

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5. MustangSally, Mar 27, 2015

### MustangSally Member

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what chance is that?
i would think a fair chance would be only 25 times in 900 tries (~52.8%)
but you know there is no profit inn that, it starts at 30 hits
as you DUE knows
use a streak calc
most online are giving wrong results
this one looks good
http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml

of course in one attempt of 900 rolls any thing can happen
like 18 yos in a row
37 7s in a row
these one can take to the bank
not two 12s in a row

Mully

#125
6. Jack_The_Ripper, Jun 10, 2016

### Jack_The_Ripper Member

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So if that hit the casino pays you \$93k! Wow that would be one hell of a win and come back if someone rolled two twelves in a row and I've seen it done multiple times but never on it lol but does the box carry that much in cheques on the table?

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7. basicstrategy777, Jun 10, 2016

### basicstrategy777 Member

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Very, very likely they would not book the bet. Prop bet limits are different than table limits.

At a 5 dollar table they would have about 250k.....more on a higher minimum bet table.

777

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8. Jack_The_Ripper, Jun 10, 2016

### Jack_The_Ripper Member

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Ty for the info on the box money and yes I was just thinking that too and they wouldn't book a bet for \$3k,

I remember the first time I played on a craps table, I threw out a \$1 cheque by accident for a #5 place bet, when the shooter was shooting and you could make call bets, the box said NO BET! Table min was \$5

He asked me if I had ever played before and I said no and it was just me and one other guy on the table and he was new to the game as well, so real quick he went over everything with both of us about the table mins and maxs for each bet on the table layout and I remember him saying something about a min & maximum on the Horns. Just don't remember what the max was, plus I was not playing on them since I only knew the PL with odds. But he (the box man) was a really cool dude and was great to shoot the shit with while playing craps and he even kept up with everything going on when it was busy & still carried on a normal conversation with me lol...

I'm gonna ask the stick next week when I hit the tables up what the max bet is on a horn and HARDWAYS

#128
9. EddieT, Jun 22, 2016

### EddieT Member

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City Lights,

\$100 every roll? You must be buying in at \$3000 dollars in order to even have a chance and hope the shooter has a 20 to 40 roll before 7Sevining Out. You're better off placing \$100 across and \$120 on the 6 and 8. But I guess you have patience on loosing all that money. Good Luck!

#129
Last edited: Jun 22, 2016
10. Twelve4s, Apr 2, 2017

### Twelve4s Member

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How did it work out?

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11. von duck, Apr 2, 2017

### von duck Member

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I'd say about a 35% chance.

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12. von duck, Apr 2, 2017

### von duck Member

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25 times is correct.

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13. betwthelines, Apr 2, 2017

### betwthelines Member

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wow!

i have never seen this before on this forum in a thread of such length!

(i might note that i was 7/8th into it before realizing its age! [sort of weird {and drifty} in itself given the plethora of long-absent posters]...just back from a 3 months absence here thus missing much i thought nothing about it being a 7 page thread)

so after reading the first post i thought, "ok, another gamblers' fallacy discussion, wont have anything new to say, should i proceed?"...but then curiosity suggested, "hm...i wonder, given its length, to what topics this will morph into?" so i proceeded.

sure i did alot of skimming but not ignoring so as to get at least understanding of the topic...

to my UTTER ASTONISHMENT this 130+ posts thread stayed virtually on-topic its entire length!

this is simply unprecedented on the craps forum for a thread of such length.

tom p
-g. geist: and your point?
--tom p: none
---g. geist: weird...you are too weird

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14. Onautopilot, Apr 2, 2017

### Onautopilot Member

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I never, ever, argued with Mustang Sally......she always has her DUCKS in a row!

See her post # 124 above....it shows better than 25%., or 35%, I think.

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15. von duck, Apr 2, 2017

### von duck Member

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I'm not sure about the math, 49% might be about right, but even at that, the bet would be a HUGE loser.

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16. Onautopilot, Apr 2, 2017

### Onautopilot Member

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I'm not exactly sure about the math. 49% may be about right, but the bet would be a HUGE \$ loser.
........................................................................................................................................................................
It's certainly not a "winner", that's for sure. Just a lotto type bet to make now and then. A \$1 here and there over a lifetime, and better odds than the real lottery.

I have hit several 12 parlays, one by accident....I had a \$1 on the 12, and the cocktail waitress came by, as I was flirting with her, the 12 hit, the stick asked me what I wanted to do with my bet, I just said, "parlay it", I thought it was one of my place bets....the 12 showed again. I tipped the cocktail waitress very well the next time by.

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17. Twelve4s, Apr 14, 2017

### Twelve4s Member

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I know I asked this before and never got an answer from the DI community, but the question is, why not go for the biggest ROI on the table?

If dice control is real, why not set and shoot for the biggest payoff on the table?

Waiting for the explanation.....

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18. von duck, Apr 14, 2017

### von duck Member

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Because the biggest payoffs would have the largest H/A. Even the most delusional "dice controllers" don't claim 100% control. I've said it before, the only " logical " target, would be the odds bet. You would seem to have nothing to lose, even on an "off" day.

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19. Bases loaded, Apr 14, 2017

### Bases loaded Member

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I like when the old posts get 're-newed'. If for nothing else, than to see who some of the 'old' posters were. Forum seemed slower back than, and more peaceful. Threads stayed on topic, and didn't desolve into name calling immediately.

The other thing is the outright stinginess of hitting the 'thumbs up' button back in the day! Man, a guy had to really move the needle to get a like.

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20. tabletop123, Apr 14, 2017

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