12=30:1 Anybody ever try this strategy??

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.

  1. Onautopilot, Mar 26, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I like a different strategy on the "12" bet. Take $900 to the table and bet a dollar on the 12 every roll, and if it hits, parlay it....900 chances for $900! And actually, you have a fair chance of hitting it before the $900 is spent.
     
    #121
  2. KokomoJoe4, Mar 26, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

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    a fair chance of hitting it 30 or so times yes, but not so sure about twice in a row : - (
     
    #122
  3. Onautopilot, Mar 26, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Yep, actually it's somewhat less than a 50 / 50 proposition of hitting a parlay in that many tries. I think the odds are about 1 in 1296 of hitting the parlay. But I still like it a lot better than a Martingale on the 12. I would probably never really do the $900 thing at one session, but over my lifetime, I am sure I have tried it more times than that....a few dollars at a time. I can vividly remember the few wins I had doing it, and the $1 spent trying, never comes to mind. :)
     
    #123
  4. MustangSally, Mar 26, 2015

    MustangSally

    MustangSally Member

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    yes, this is a simple calculation btw

    the probability of NOT getting 2 in a row over 900 attempts =
    0.508804061
    (I used Excel)

    1 in 1296 = the number of attempts (36 * 36 = 1296)
    each attempt = 1.027777778 rolls (1 + 1/36)
    so the average number of rolls to see a run of 2 = 1,332

    but the fun would be to do this all 900 tries and keep the winnings in a piggy bank
    one could hit this two times in 900 attempts or even more

    Code:
    Event...    Run Probability...    1 in
    at least 1 run of length 2 or more    0.491195939148079    2.04
    at least 2 runs of length 2 or more    0.146754646697653    6.81
    at least 3 runs of length 2 or more    0.030815849211662    32.45
    at least 4 runs of length 2 or more    0.004944458909911    202.25
    at least 5 runs of length 2 or more    0.000638892413747    1,565.21
    
    I think I try this on me next visit to Las Vegas
    sounds fun!
    hugs and kisses
    Sally
     
    #124
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  5. MustangSally, Mar 27, 2015

    MustangSally

    MustangSally Member

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    what chance is that?
    i would think a fair chance would be only 25 times in 900 tries (~52.8%)
    but you know there is no profit inn that, it starts at 30 hits
    as you DUE knows
    use a streak calc
    most online are giving wrong results
    this one looks good
    http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml

    of course in one attempt of 900 rolls any thing can happen
    like 18 yos in a row
    37 7s in a row
    these one can take to the bank
    not two 12s in a row

    Mully
     
    #125
  6. Jack_The_Ripper, Jun 10, 2016

    Jack_The_Ripper

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    So if that hit the casino pays you $93k! Wow that would be one hell of a win and come back if someone rolled two twelves in a row and I've seen it done multiple times but never on it lol but does the box carry that much in cheques on the table?
     
    #126
  7. basicstrategy777, Jun 10, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    Very, very likely they would not book the bet. Prop bet limits are different than table limits.

    At a 5 dollar table they would have about 250k.....more on a higher minimum bet table.

    777
     
    #127
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  8. Jack_The_Ripper, Jun 10, 2016

    Jack_The_Ripper

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    Ty for the info on the box money and yes I was just thinking that too and they wouldn't book a bet for $3k,

    I remember the first time I played on a craps table, I threw out a $1 cheque by accident for a #5 place bet, when the shooter was shooting and you could make call bets, the box said NO BET! Table min was $5

    He asked me if I had ever played before and I said no and it was just me and one other guy on the table and he was new to the game as well, so real quick he went over everything with both of us about the table mins and maxs for each bet on the table layout and I remember him saying something about a min & maximum on the Horns. Just don't remember what the max was, plus I was not playing on them since I only knew the PL with odds. But he (the box man) was a really cool dude and was great to shoot the shit with while playing craps and he even kept up with everything going on when it was busy & still carried on a normal conversation with me lol...

    I'm gonna ask the stick next week when I hit the tables up what the max bet is on a horn and HARDWAYS
     
    #128
  9. EddieT, Jun 22, 2016

    EddieT

    EddieT Member

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    City Lights,

    $100 every roll? You must be buying in at $3000 dollars in order to even have a chance and hope the shooter has a 20 to 40 roll before 7Sevining Out. You're better off placing $100 across and $120 on the 6 and 8. But I guess you have patience on loosing all that money. Good Luck!
     
    #129
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2016
  10. Twelve4s, Apr 2, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    How did it work out?
     
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  11. von duck, Apr 2, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I'd say about a 35% chance.
     
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  12. von duck, Apr 2, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    25 times is correct.
     
    #132
  13. betwthelines, Apr 2, 2017

    betwthelines

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    wow!

    i have never seen this before on this forum in a thread of such length!

    (i might note that i was 7/8th into it before realizing its age! [sort of weird {and drifty} in itself given the plethora of long-absent posters]...just back from a 3 months absence here thus missing much i thought nothing about it being a 7 page thread)

    so after reading the first post i thought, "ok, another gamblers' fallacy discussion, wont have anything new to say, should i proceed?"...but then curiosity suggested, "hm...i wonder, given its length, to what topics this will morph into?" so i proceeded.

    sure i did alot of skimming but not ignoring so as to get at least understanding of the topic...

    to my UTTER ASTONISHMENT this 130+ posts thread stayed virtually on-topic its entire length!

    this is simply unprecedented on the craps forum for a thread of such length.

    tom p
    -g. geist: and your point?
    --tom p: none
    ---g. geist: weird...you are too weird
     
    #133
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  14. Onautopilot, Apr 2, 2017

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I never, ever, argued with Mustang Sally......she always has her DUCKS in a row! :)

    See her post # 124 above....it shows better than 25%., or 35%, I think. :)
     
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  15. von duck, Apr 2, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I'm not sure about the math, 49% might be about right, but even at that, the bet would be a HUGE loser.
     
    #135
  16. Onautopilot, Apr 2, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    I'm not exactly sure about the math. 49% may be about right, but the bet would be a HUGE $ loser.
    ........................................................................................................................................................................
    It's certainly not a "winner", that's for sure. Just a lotto type bet to make now and then. A $1 here and there over a lifetime, and better odds than the real lottery. :)

    I have hit several 12 parlays, one by accident....I had a $1 on the 12, and the cocktail waitress came by, as I was flirting with her, the 12 hit, the stick asked me what I wanted to do with my bet, I just said, "parlay it", I thought it was one of my place bets....the 12 showed again. I tipped the cocktail waitress very well the next time by. :)
     
    #136
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  17. Twelve4s, Apr 14, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    I know I asked this before and never got an answer from the DI community, but the question is, why not go for the biggest ROI on the table?

    If dice control is real, why not set and shoot for the biggest payoff on the table?

    Waiting for the explanation.....
     
    #137
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  18. von duck, Apr 14, 2017

    von duck

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    Because the biggest payoffs would have the largest H/A. Even the most delusional "dice controllers" don't claim 100% control. I've said it before, the only " logical " target, would be the odds bet. You would seem to have nothing to lose, even on an "off" day.
     
    #138
  19. Bases loaded, Apr 14, 2017

    Bases loaded

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    I like when the old posts get 're-newed'. If for nothing else, than to see who some of the 'old' posters were. Forum seemed slower back than, and more peaceful. Threads stayed on topic, and didn't desolve into name calling immediately.

    The other thing is the outright stinginess of hitting the 'thumbs up' button back in the day! Man, a guy had to really move the needle to get a like.
     
    #139
  20. tabletop123, Apr 14, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Nothing to lose? Lol. The odds bet? Don't make the point & you lose your money! There is no logical bet for Even the very best of shooters! It's a negative expectation game & you NEVER know when the Seven Out is coming! Sniping numbers......No such thing!

    Sure, you can use a particular Dice Set to TRY to target a number/s, but the reality is that it might take you 20 tosses to hit the intended number or you just might catch that damn seven out!

    You just never know what those two plastic bitches ( the dice) have in store for you! Just like opening up a Cracker Jack box.

    Might be the Trifecta, or it could Very well be the booby prize! Keep your fingers crossed, & hope for the best, along with that magnificent toss!

    See you at The Top!
     
    #140
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