12=30:1 Anybody ever try this strategy??

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.

  1. basicstrategy777, Sep 11, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    Yes...you are correct. You have to bet all 4 for it to be considered a horn bet. and the chips go in a square in the center of the table that says 'horn bet' . They are positioned in the square in relation to where you are standing at the table, so that the stick knows who made the bet.

    777
     
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  2. Southern-Comfort, Sep 11, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    Tell them you want a horn bet and toss the stickman $4, or a horn high for $5. Or just turn it into a World (Whirl) bet for $5 ( horn bet with any seven added).
     
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  3. CityLights, Sep 11, 2012

    CityLights

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    got it.. you guys are the best.. if i say gimme a horn high and need to specify which 1 gets the extra buck correct?..
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Sep 11, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    That's correct......toss the stick a nickle and tell him "horn high 12"..........2,3,11 have a buck each on them, the 12 two bucks.

    777
     
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  5. CityLights, Sep 11, 2012

    CityLights

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    got it.. gonna hit in the morning.. ill let you guys know how it went.. thanks for all your help
     
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  6. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 12, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Sorry to disappoint. Basic Sevens gets my vote for Forum Historian as he has apparently done some serious research on the game, presumably while writing his student handbook.

    Not knowing the answer doesn't keep me from making one up, however. Just as the Don'ts became known as the Dark Side shortly after the first Star Wars movie, "Make it look like ..." may well have roots in literature or theater as well with someone who had read, "Make like a statue," in some gangster story coining the phrase at the table to sound like he/she was hip as well as knowledgeable.
     
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  7. dustedone, Sep 12, 2012

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    Citylights,

    You are relying on two of the worst strategies when it comes to table games. First is the gamblers fallacy. Do read up: http://www.crapsforum.com/viewthread/1758/ . The other is a martigale system on covering your wagers.

    I have heard the story of the player that used a progressive martigale system on the TWELVE in the past. He wagered on the idea that that TWELVE MUST come up in the 36 roll parameter. He worked out the play to double the roll amount to 72 rolls. He figure his stake on that amount of rolls and approached the table. He hit the TWELVE numerious time and figure he had an unbeatable system.

    The system failed him after nearly four hours later and over 200 rolls of the dice that bankrupted him.

    The understanding that odds on the out-come each time the dice are rolled NEVER changes. It is a 1 in 36 chance the TWELVE will be the out come. Not the TWELVE will be the out-come once in 36 chances.

    But you can try and enter a casino buy in large and put the system to work. If you are successful on your outing once the casino will more than likely as you to leave w/ your winnings. They are not to happy w/ people that are willing to buy a win.
     
    #47
  8. CityLights, Sep 12, 2012

    CityLights

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    well i just got back and it worked.. the first time i let 18 rolls pass then bet 1$ on the 12.. on the 6th roll the 12 hit.. profiting 24$.. the second time i didnt wait on any free rolls because i was up quite a bit from normal play, so i bet 10$ on the 12 right away.. this method failed lol cost me 300$.. so i went to the noodle bar and ate and i came back a little upset.. i bought back in for 300$ waited 22rolls and started 10$ on the 12.. on the 14th roll the 12 hit.. is it proven? NO.. but today it worked 2out of 3times.. and i believe if i wouldve waited on the 2nd try maybe that would have been successful too.. i didnt stick around to see if the 12 came shortly after bcuz i was pissed lol.. im not saying this is gonna work everytime but if it wins more times than not then ill take it.. today couldve have very well been luck.. so well find out saturday when i go back lol..

    and im aware that i actually lost 116$ on this trial but i believe i shouldnt have bet the 2nd run like i did..

    Dusteddone thanks for your opinion but im honestly not worried about how the casino feels about my play.. ill take every penny from them possible.. wether they like it or not..
     
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  9. thecrazymr, Sep 13, 2012

    thecrazymr

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    Based on that theory, if a 7 has not hit after 6 rolls you should be betting the 7 (Any 7). It's odds say it comes every 6 rolls and therefore would be a good bet. The problem is that as soon as you try, the 7 will not show up until 13 or 14 rolls later just so the ODDS QUEEN can kick your A&&. Nothing is ever DUE or has increased probability of showing but if you are going to attempt betting based off that theory, use numbers that show more often and win a bit less. Buy the 6 or 8 if you have seen a couple 7's show. One of these should show soon then too correct?

    It's all good in theory but in a casino, the odds do not equate to how often a number should roll. In live action, the odds are only used to pay so that you get less than you should for the risk provided. A casino does not expect every roll to happen the correct number of times. They expect that every number or bet on the table will be countered over time by another number or bet on the opposite side. Then, regardless of what outcome occurs, the house is ahead because it will take more from the losing player and pay out less to the winning player keeping the difference as a profit.
    This is easiest explained using a Roulette wheel with 38 total numbers to bet on. If 38 people walk up and each one places a bet on a different number, one of them is going to win every time. The casino does not care if it is the same person, different person, or rotates thru all of them. The casino will take down 37 bets, (Leaving the one that hit) and pay out 35 bets. It is simply looking at the 2 bets off every spin of the wheel it gets to keep. Think of it as the canino taking from all losing players and giving to all winning players and keeping a processing fee. Does it matter to the house if the same number hits 100 times in a row? NO because over time the bets themeselves are what will equal out, so many winning and so many losing.

    The casino, the ultimate exchange place keeping a commision to move the money around.
     
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  10. dustedone, Sep 13, 2012

    dustedone

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    There is another problem w this system. What do you do when your wager on the TWELVE reaches the tables max wager? You see you either run out of money or you hit the bettors ceiling and your out your stake. I guess you can either look for a table w/ a higher max or try and rented out a table for some high roller stakes.

    And if your a high roller player on a craps table you play by yourself most of the times. How you gonna shot the dice just wagering big on the TWELVE? ALOT of pitfalls in this system or is there?!?

    If a system is so good, one should be able to approach the table at any time and make it work. By waiting out a handfull of rolls based a "hunches" is postponeing your demise. And what do you do if the TWELVE hits and your not on the table? Start the count over? I have seen back to back to back rolls on the TWELVE many times.

    Close but no cigar.
     
    #50
  11. CityLights, Sep 13, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    lol yes you start over.. im not claiming its the best bet.. im simply saying it changes the houses advantage.. 36numbers pay is 30:1 that basically means you have 30 tries to break even.. if you wait 20 / rolls this gives you 50/0 rolls.. you guys know alot more than i do maybe im retarted and theres something im missing here lol.. i understand a 12 doesnt have to roll ever again.. bt on an average we know it rolls every 36 rolls.. this is all we can go by.. correct?
     
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  12. JGreen6918, Sep 13, 2012

    JGreen6918

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    Hold on there, tough guy. I was letting this strategy fly because it sounded like you wanted to play hunches. But now you're saying it changes the house advantage? I think not. Yes, you have 30 rolls to break even if you bet every roll, but you cannot use rolls in the past that you didn't bet on and say that they allow you to have a greater number of rolls to break even. It doesn't work that way. You still have 30 rolls, no matter which rolls you decide to bet on.

    I understand where you're coming from: you think that if you wait 30 rolls, it's like you "saved" 30 bets because you would have lost them all. And now that you'll start betting for the next 30 rolls, you have 60 total to break even or make a profit. And the 12 would have to not show up for 60 rolls, and what are the chances of that? Yeah... I get it. But you're not making a bet at the beginning that says the 12 will roll at least once in the next 60 rolls. You're betting that the next roll will be a 12... 30 times. That's a big difference.
     
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  13. dustedone, Sep 13, 2012

    dustedone

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    CityLights,

    I am not trying to put YOU down or call YOU retarded. I do understand where you are coming from on this strategy. But try this: Chart the table for a hour, which is about 54 roll in an hour. Write down every decision for the dice in that hours time. Then see how many times the TWELVE showa its face. I believe the number on the average is 2.3 times the TWELVE will show its face.

    The average is based on the perfect roll count of _________ rolls.(so many rolls) The number is in the forum here somewhere. and the odds dont lie. The TWELVE comes up, I believe, more than the odds show. You can look back into the goatcabin threads and most llikely find this info and it will give you the break down of the perfect roll.

    THis is a very tough system that requires a large stake and the right table to make it happen. but is not a system or strategy that is praised by many. I am not saying that one wont find success; but in the longest of runs is not a realiable strategy.

    THis system is one thing and the gambler fallacy is another. If the system is a money maker then the fallacy should not play a part into the system. Just make it work for you the moment you approach the table and bet the TWELVE from the get go. you should throw the gambler fallacy out the window!!!!

    Where areyou playing? by the way. There are not many casinos that you could put this system to work. Vegas, AC and Mississippi casino are most likely the casino w/ the largest max wager out there. One could never make this system work in the long run on a table w/ a $250 max wager.

    And to buy in at the $300 is small peanuts if you are trying to truely execute this system. You have to buy in a little bigger my friend.
     
    #53
  14. $nakeEye$, Sep 13, 2012

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    dustedone -

    For the Record -

    I have been playing winning BJ for a couple of years - since 1988 - to be exact -

    I have NEVER bought in at a BJ table in excess of $300 -

    I play $25 min tables - play 2 hands @ $25 when count in neg / nuetral -

    Proceed to $100 on each hand on a + count - then $200 -

    I have $6K + in my pocket - which - IF NECESSARY - I will introduce to the table as ned be -

    Otherwise - I am ONLY a $300 risk player - NO CASINO THREAT -

    HA !

    BTW - I play craps the same way - small buy-in - pants pockets bulging -

    I am in NO inclination to attract attention !

    WHAT They do NOT know - will never HURT ME !
     
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  15. dustedone, Sep 13, 2012

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    $nakeEye$,

    I believe you at the blackjack tables. Were he talking about a progressive system on the TWELVE. Blackjack, YAWN! I use to play it for years. The casino lets you jump your bets all around on a single shoe? Man, In most casinos in Vegas if you wanna play more than a single hand you gotta start from the beginning of the shoe and play it out that what. And for going all over the board w/ ones bet. Just, "Press it up, please."

    good luck at the tables
     
    #55
  16. CityLights, Sep 13, 2012

    CityLights

    CityLights Member

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    here we go again.. to the guy with the "TOUGH GUY" statement.. You couldve very well left that out by the way,because #1 in no way did i come of as tough in my statement.. And your in no position to decide wether im a "tough guy" or not, capiche? im simply asking and i firmly believe that if i let the 20 free rolls slide by and bet the next 30 it changes the odds in my favor.. im basically saying do you have a better chance of riolling a 12 in 30 rolls? or 50? i think the answer is pretty cut and dry.. like i said i understand that the 12 doesnt have to show at all in 5,000 rolls.. but according to the math and percentages it will, every 36th roll.. am i wrong? lol and to the other guy i dont understand what my bankroll has to do with it? i could try my luck with 1$ or 1000$.. results would still be the same.. and if your saying in 1hr theres 54 rolls and the 12 shows its face 2.3 times? what does that tell you. i called myself retarted i didnt suggest you did buddy.. no offense takin.. just dont appreciate the tough guy statement from the guy who doesnt know me from adam and obviously feels hes a tough guy :)
     
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  17. dustedone, Sep 13, 2012

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    CityLights,

    To answer your question bankroll has everything to do w/ a martigal system. i don t know where your getting this tough guy additude. And can you answer my question? Where do you play craps? I live in Vegas; as for now I am in Minnesota helping out my parents. When in Vegas I play at numerous casinos. You name it I have played there. I mostly play Sam s Town and the Blouder Hwy Casino. I will hit the strip from time to time. In MN, there are no craps tables at the indian casinos. I have to travel well over an hour to WI and even more to find a table in Iowa.

    As for your question on the number of rolls, the TWELVE can show its face at any time. The idea behind a progressive system is to have the means to chase your wager till it hits. But if the number doesn t hit and one reaches the max wager on the table your done.

    you can take the advise w/ a grain of salt for all I care. But this is what been out there for years. I am relying you nothing that has been said, written, repeated, or sampled. It your money you canlose it any way you like.

    the best of luck at the tables.
     
    #57
  18. dustedone, Sep 13, 2012

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    As for wagering the TWELVE; one could progressively hop a hard-way w/ the same result.
     
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  19. $nakeEye$, Sep 13, 2012

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    " ALL KNOWING ONE - aka dustedone -

    Let me ask a stupid question here -

    ALL OUT ON THE 12 -

    WHY not go ALL out on either the 1/2 OR the 6/5 -

    ODDS are reduced to 15-1 as oppossed to 30 -1 -

    More oft than not the "little heads " get in the way of the " big heads " -

    As a result of that " mentality " there are an exorbitant amount of " Fatherless children and single Mothers " -

    I will let this post rest here !
     
    #59
  20. dustedone, Sep 13, 2012

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    $nakeEye$,

    No, the all out odds on the TWELVE in the long run on long odds saves and make one more money. And CityLights I have worked out alot progressive system on a spreadsheet years ago. The progressive on the lower odds number have an inclreasely quicker build up marginally if they tend not to hit quickly.

    I use to play a progressive 3-way hopping SEVEN that would seemingly pay quicklly and pay OK. but keep track of where one is in the progression and to keep the casino sideways is difficult. But as the hand would go on and on w/ out a seven-out it compounds quickly. And a Hopping SEVEN pays at most casino 16:1. I have seen it as low as 14:1 and as high as 18:1. But then again I was play three wagers shooting for a 15:1.

    And again if you were to enter a casino to buy in large and try and buy the win.....

    As for the all knowing...I am that can admit when I am wrong. If I am wrong here, I am just repeating what I have read, heard, and witnessed. but thanks for the witticism. I have been wrong one this forum in the past and will probably be wrong and corrected in the fututre.
     
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