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Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by CityLights, Sep 10, 2012.
I dont think betting these is that stupid. Usually snake eyes will show up once or twice in the last hundred rolls. You get 29 tries to guess right, and still come out ahead. If the two has not come up in the last 70 rolls you just need to guess right in the next 29 rolls to win money. Its not that stupid to try if its overdue. The probability says it should come up 1 in 36 so at some point long term it will come out correctly to the mathematical odds of how often it should come up.
I have got this in 4 or 5 tries many times before. Your stupid to bet on it every roll or every 10 rolls, but after 50 or 75 rolls id say its getting more likely to come up. The probability of it coming up is 1 out of 36 so to infinity rolls it will come up more often at some point
That i basically the due theory , there is a lot to be said for that.
Seems like a great way to lose money.
It isn't uncommon to witness 200 rolls without aces showing up. Since they're one roll bets I rarely bet them. Sometimes I will bet a hardway in a negative progression one of those reaches the 200 roll threshold that I use.
I'll throw out a chip if I haven't seen them in a long while and I got a hunch.....birdballs are DUE.
Good a time as any. But no better.
One thing for sure, if your set is not producing 2’s and 12’s, you have no business on the ATS bet.
No! No way. You ain't him.
It's stupid TD, and you know it.
Stupid with Fair Dice,... but NOT STUPID with typical BIASED DICE, favoring 1's & 6's.
I'm very new here, so i don't anticipate a rousing positive response straight out of the gate from anyone. But I'm certainly NOT a newbie to live Craps tables. This subject of the 12s and "expected outcomes" DOES have some validity to a successful outing at the tables. THE GREATEST thing about Craps is two-fold, 1, The Player (shooter) has the MOST CONTROL over ANY OTHER "GAMBLE" period. And 2, Every single dice roll is a winner somewhere on the table! We all need to use that to our advantage. You simply CANNOT say the same for Any Other Game. Truth be told, Baccarat is a distant 2nd place for giving yourself the absolute Best opportunity to walk out of a Casino with more than you went in with.
My opinion is that the less often a certain number occurs the harder it is to come up with a consistent way to exploit that number, DI or no DI.
The easiest way to consistently win is to base a strategy around the number that is already the one that occurs most often.
What about Roulette? Or the Big Wheel (if there still are any)?
Taken in proper context, you only focused on 1/2 of my 2 fold reason for Craps being the Greatest game, the 1st half was the Player Control, specifically the ability to button bets off or pull them down after placing them, I don't make prop bets until after I'm FIRMLY on house money, and PL /DPL only when I am the shooter. My bad, because I had to cut my post short when things came up mid post.
I tend to agree with you to a large but indirect degree, I will elaborate on that after I first relay a time I was at Mirage, the table was icy conditions, no shooter could throw more than a couple of rolls after setting point, usually a horn or point, out. This happened over 2 full rounds of the table, plus a couple into the 3rd trip. Boom, I was down close to $300 and I always start ultra conservative at 1 or 2 minimums at risk! I like to free count as much as I can keep mental track of also.. So I decide to go on Red after free counted 11 rolls that were Not the point(8) so, I'm on Any Red with $10 chip, determined to double after the 3rd roll not Red... Short story my last 2 bets were $800 each, and there I was cleaned out in under 20 minutes… a personal worst. That was just a day that everything I did was the wrong move...but the math odds were always "in my favor“
Hop or Red bets weren't what I had in mind. They aren't much better than betting straight up on boxcars.I haven't made a Red or hop the sevens bet in my life.
You need to get a lot more creative than that and not think in linear terms. Any negative progression betting system that requires 1 win to get back to even or ahead, like a straight martingale, will not stand up to normal variance over time.
I prefer to structure my bankroll when I choose to play that way. If I buy in for $100 and lose it making $5 bets, I buy in for $200 next trip or next table and make $10 bets, stuff like that.
Sometimes a number is past due.
That is probably more true than not but let's not discount
the "LITTLE VOICE" , listen to him sometimes he
comes up with some really good ideas.
I couldn't count how many times over the years I have heard people say
"Damn I was going to bet that".
Many times in craps we regret , as much , the things we
didn't do as the things we did.